MFFU Rapid 150K funded — six requested confluence combos, full detail
Arman's six picks (three ★'d on the old M2 Master grid) evaluated on the P1 Fast reBreak MFFU funded method over the full engine window 2023-08-01 → 2026-07-08, with year-by-year splits, the pre-registered-study context for the four cells that were in that grid, and an M2-provenance column answering "did the old potential transfer?". Post-hoc selection on burned data — labeled as such throughout.
Four of six were cells in the pre-registered 36-cell study and failed its kill bars (all first-fail at bar 1). The two newly-run cells are −$11,812 (8-bit take≥5) and −$20,640 (actfloor→c5) full-window. The single positive number anywhere is actfloor→c5's +$1,385 on the 2025+ window — carried by one regime flip (three straight losing years, then +$11,030 in 2026 H1) and far below the $10,901 materiality floor. The live 6-confluence stack with take-AB stands. Engine data only: any future champion still passes TV parity → NT8 verification → ratification before live (prop-firm account protocol).
Master table — full window 2023-08 → 2026-07 (exact dollars, engine $0.74/side)
| combo | n | WR | expR | PF | net | Δ full | Δ 2025+ | max EOD DD | ex-top-5 | worst day | M2 grid net (Δ) | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BASE — the live 6-gate stack P1 Fast reBreak, MFFU Rapid 150K funded, $1,200 flat risk; legacy grade path (grade_filter='AB' over the live six ≡ count ≥ 4). The null hypothesis. | 312 | 33.3% | +0.188 | 1.43 | $68,784 | $16,204 | $57,040 | −$2,700 | — | LIVE BASELINE | ||
| 9-bit stack, take ≥ 5 live six + onbreak + actfloor + engine-gapadr; take iff agreement count ≥ 5 | 656 | 27.7% | +0.021 | 1.04 | $15,960 | −$52,823 | −$11,267 | $37,838 | $3,713 | −$3,608 | $14,295 (+$3,896) | FAILED pre-registered kill bars (first fail: bar 1) — Δ vs live −$11,266.61 over the primary window |
| 8-bit stack, take ≥ 5 live six + onbreak + actfloor (no gapadr); take iff agreement count ≥ 5 | 335 | 31.9% | +0.146 | 1.31 | $56,971 | −$11,812 | −$7,872 | $19,530 | $45,222 | −$2,659 | $12,865 (+$2,466) | post-hoc exploratory; Δ vs live −$7,872.29 over the primary window (−$11,812.46 full window) — no pre-registered kill bar, no FDR q |
| 7-bit stack, take ≥ 4 live six + onbreak; take iff agreement count ≥ 4 (pure superset of the live book) | 413 | 30.8% | +0.105 | 1.22 | $51,108 | −$17,676 | −$3,244 | $20,977 | $39,336 | −$2,700 | $13,122 (+$2,723) | FAILED pre-registered kill bars (first fail: bar 1) — Δ vs live −$3,243.62 over the primary window |
| swap: actfloor replaces c6 live six with c6_room swapped out for actfloor; take rule unchanged (count ≥ 4) | 692 | 27.2% | +0.007 | 1.01 | $4,938 | −$63,845 | −$34,456 | $41,198 | −$6,861 | −$3,609 | $15,129 (+$4,730) | FAILED pre-registered kill bars (first fail: bar 1) — Δ vs live −$34,456.41 over the primary window |
| swap: onbreak replaces c1 live six with c1_trend swapped out for onbreak; take rule unchanged (count ≥ 4) | 224 | 31.2% | +0.145 | 1.31 | $37,221 | −$31,563 | −$25,506 | $11,948 | $25,481 | −$2,587 | $11,236 (+$837) | FAILED pre-registered kill bars (first fail: bar 1) — Δ vs live −$25,505.86 over the primary window |
| swap: actfloor replaces c5 live six with c5_htf swapped out for actfloor; take rule unchanged (count ≥ 4) | 535 | 29.5% | +0.078 | 1.16 | $48,143 | −$20,640 | +$1,385 | $30,233 | $36,344 | −$3,608 | $11,669 (+$1,269) | post-hoc exploratory; Δ vs live +$1,384.57 over the primary window (−$20,640.49 full window) — no pre-registered kill bar, no FDR q |
All M2-grid cells were RULED DEAD by the 2026-08-08 two-judge tribunal (winners-capped-at-1R flips, ex-top-5 concentration, 1-tick slippage); the M2 column is a different method ($250-nominal replay) and is context, not evidence.
Year-by-year PnL (net · n; hover a cell for WR/expR)
| combo | 2023 Aug–Dec | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 Jan–Jul | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BASE — the live 6-gate stack | $3,238 | 34 | $328 | 112 | $36,859 | 109 | $28,359 | 57 |
| 9-bit stack, take ≥ 5 | −$14,671 | 86 | −$23,319 | 252 | $24,491 | 199 | $29,460 | 119 |
| 8-bit stack, take ≥ 5 | −$1,459 | 39 | $1,086 | 132 | $37,449 | 106 | $19,896 | 58 |
| 7-bit stack, take ≥ 4 | −$3,426 | 46 | −$7,440 | 156 | $31,889 | 138 | $30,084 | 73 |
| swap: actfloor replaces c6 | −$11,925 | 80 | −$13,898 | 262 | $9,010 | 224 | $21,751 | 126 |
| swap: onbreak replaces c1 | −$8,922 | 26 | $6,432 | 87 | $29,636 | 75 | $10,076 | 36 |
| swap: actfloor replaces c5 | −$8,589 | 66 | −$9,869 | 196 | $27,213 | 172 | $39,388 | 101 |
Why the M2 "potential" did not transfer
Nothing about the confluence bits changed between the two studies. What changed is the machine they were bolted onto, in three ways that all push the same direction. (1) THE TAIL. On M2 Master the runner is trailed, so a good added trade can pay 6.04R - and that is literally where the old winners came from: cap winners at 1R and CONFIG_7_k4's +$2,723 becomes -$5,937, actfloor->c6's +$4,730 becomes -$29,882. P1 Fast books a fixed 2R and stops; the highest r in any cell of the new grid is 1.9863, and 0 of the added trades anywhere exceed 2R. The old edge was a lottery ticket the new method does not sell. (2) THE BAR. The added trades were never good in either study - marginal expR 0.0703 / 0.026 / 0.029 R on M2, and -0.0398 / -0.0393 / -0.0831 R on Fast. But M2's base book only earned 0.079 R/trade, so junk volume still added dollars; Fast's base earns 0.333 R/trade, so the same junk volume subtracts. Every one of these cells is a volume trade, and volume only pays when the base is weak. (3) THE PATH. M2's grid was a take-rule replay over a stored ledger with no daily stop - a base trade could only leave by failing the new predicate. The Fast grid re-runs the engine with one position, a 2R daily stop and a $9,500 day cap, so the added trades EVICT good base trades: 8 evictions worth $8,945 on the 9-bit cell (79% of its loss). The swaps are worse still, because dropping a live gate now costs real booked money - actfloor->c6 dropped 17 base rows worth -$548 on M2 (a gain) and 17 base rows worth +$14,705 on Fast (a loss), and onbreak->c1 forfeits 65 base trades worth $28,602 at 0.372 expR. Regime is NOT the explanation for the three big reversals: restricted to the same 2025+ era, M2 still showed +$3,282 / +$1,481 / +$1,321 where Fast shows -$11,267 / -$3,244 / -$34,456. The one place regime does bite is actfloor->c5, which is actually POSITIVE on the matched window (+$1,385) and only negative full-window (-$20,640) on a textbook regime flip: 2023 -$11,827, 2024 -$10,198, 2025 -$9,645, then 2026H1 +$11,030. And the one thing that did NOT change is the count hump: M2's count-4-good / count-5-bad shape (+0.4372 / -0.5794 R on 2025+ candidates) reappears almost exactly in the Fast base book (+0.4368 R / +$74,266 on n=144 vs -0.4304 R / -$10,180 on n=20). Every k>=5 policy keeps those toxic count-5 rows on both methods.
| combo | M2 Δ | Fast Δ (2025+) | M2 Δ capped@1R | marginal expR M2 → Fast | Fast cascade $ (n) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| live6 + onbreak, count>=4 | — | — | n/p¹ | — → — | — (—) |
| live6 + onbreak + actfloor, count>=5 | — | — | n/p¹ | — → — | — (—) |
| live6 + onbreak + actfloor + gapadr, count>=5 | — | — | n/p¹ | — → — | — (—) |
| actfloor replaces c5_htf, count>=4 | — | — | n/p¹ | — → — | — (—) |
| actfloor replaces c6_room, count>=4 | — | — | n/p¹ | — → — | — (—) |
| onbreak replaces c1_trend, count>=4 | — | — | n/p¹ | — → — | — (—) |
¹ not published in the stored M2 artifacts (cap stress existed only for CONFIG_7_k4 and actfloor→c6). Count-hump check: count-4 hump and count-5 hole are method-invariant — the count-4-good / count-5-bad shape reappears in the Fast base book almost exactly, so the bits behave consistently; the METHOD (fixed 2R vs trailed tails, strong vs weak base, path cascades) is what changed. Premise correction: actfloor→c5 does NOT reverse on the matched 2025+ window (+$1,385 Fast vs +$1,269 M2); its full-window negative is 2023–24 regime, not transfer failure.
Base survival context (side finding; BASE only, H=60 trading days)
| variant | blow-up | payout attainment | median to 1st payout |
|---|
Fill-model-optimistic sim of the $1,200-risk preset against MFFU's $4,500 intraday trail. This is sizing geometry, not confluences — none of the six combos changes it materially enough to matter, and no combo-vs-base survival comparison was run. Full analysis in the study artifacts.
Caveats
- BURNED DATA + POST-HOC SELECTION. These six combos were chosen AFTER seeing the results of two studies (the 2026-08-09 MFFU conf-grid and the older M2 config grid). Nothing here is a holdout; every threshold and every bit set has already looked at this window.
- The four grid combos each FAILED the pre-registered kill bars of the 2026-08-09 design; the two EXT combos were never in that grid at all, so they carry no kill-bar row and no FDR q. Absence of a kill bar is not a pass.
- Fill model is optimistic: touch fills, zero net slippage, entry-bar SL/TP not checked within the fill minute. Sim results are not expected live results.
- MES only. Nothing here transfers to MGC, MNQ or MCL.
- Modified configs are NOT TV-verified. Only the BASE preset has a TradingView parity run, and it is PASS-WITH-NOTES (96.47%, borderline-grade divergences); that parity does not transfer to any modified cell.
- $9,500 day-cap overlay: it can only DROP later trades on a day that has already banked the cap; it cannot clamp a mid-trade exit.
- Full-window numbers were SEALED until the kill-bar matrix was frozen. They are context; they may not rescue or select a cell.
- M2 PROVENANCE IS A DIFFERENT METHOD. The M2 column comes from the P1 Master M2 config grid on a $250-nominal solo replay basis (~2.6% high vs engine dollars, different management, different risk, different window). It is context for how the same bit sets behaved elsewhere — it is not evidence about the funded 150K book.
- Every M2 starred cell was RULED DEAD by the 2026-08-08 tribunal (kill tests: 1R-cap flip, ex-top-5, 1-tick slippage). The tribunal's ruling was (a) DO NOTHING — the live 6-gate stack stands and nothing was registered.
- All dollars use `dollars_net_exact` on the engine basis ($0.74/side commission — conservative vs the real $0.50/RT per micro).
- Max EOD drawdown is the peak-to-trough of the end-of-day equity curve of the book, seeded at the $150,000 funded starting balance (the measure is initial-balance-independent).
- `gapadr` here is the ENGINE port (denominator = engine strategies_p1._ors_daily_atr20, per design Amendment 1 §3a). It is NOT bit-identical to the Courtroom-screened b_gapadr: 23/2836 (0.81%) of emitted signals grade differently, all at the upper band edge. Labeled 'engine-gapadr' in every output. Applies to: A_plus_all3_count5.