+$16,294
3-yr net (sim)
1.72
profit factor
59.1%
win rate
−$1,723
max drawdown
225
trades
0.31R
expectancy / trade
The nine rules
The complete method. If a trade needs an exception, the trade is wrong — not the rule.
- Opening rangeFirst 5 minutes of RTH (09:30–09:35 ET) on MES 5-minute bars. Mark OR high, OR low, OR mid.
- SignalFirst 5m close beyond the OR high (long) or OR low (short). Eligible closes run 09:40–15:30. One signal per direction per day.
- RSI guardSkip the breakout bar if 5m RSI(14) > 70 (long) or < 30 (short). The next clean breakout close can still signal.
- EntryLimit order at the OR level (the retest), valid 30 minutes. No fill in 30 min → no trade.
- StopStructural stop = tighter of OR-mid or 1.2×ATR, floored at 0.5×ATR, then padded 0.25×ATR further.
- GradeSix confluence bits; take A/B setups only (≥4 bits).
- SizeContracts = risk ÷ (stop points × $5). Start the eval at $200/trade.
- Manage (M2)At +1R sell half and move stop to breakeven; trail the rest under post-entry 15m swings. Flat by 15:55.
- Daily disciplineDown 2R on the day → done. Never triggered in 3 years of backtest — a seatbelt, not a prediction.
Year by year
| year | net (sim) |
|---|---|
| 2023 | +$737 |
| 2024 | +$6,697 |
| 2025 | +$3,610 |
| 2026 | +$5,249 |
The sizing ladder
Five stored books of the same trades at fixed risk tiers — plus how each tier survives the TPT 25K eval.
| risk / trade | 3-yr net | PF | win | max DD (EOD) | TPT sims P/F | median days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 | +$13,020 | 1.73 | 58.7% | −$1,417 | 188 / 0 | 33.5 |
| $225 | +$14,236 | 1.70 | 58.7% | −$1,534 | — | — |
| $250 ★ | +$16,294 | 1.72 | 59.1% | −$1,723 | 177 / 11 | 29 |
| $300 | +$18,742 | 1.67 | 59.1% | −$2,196 | 175 / 13 | 26 |
| $350 | +$22,474 | 1.69 | 59.1% | −$2,475 | fails climb | — |
★ = the book charted above. Same 225-trade sequence in every row — only the fixed risk per trade changes. TPT sims = simulated 25K eval starts on every possible start day (pass / fail; from the method doc). The eval ladder: start at $200, step to $250 after +$750 banked, never above $300.
How to use it
- TPT 25K eval: start at $200/trade — whole-history max drawdown at that size ($1,378) sits under the $1,500 trailing floor; zero failed starts across three years of simulated start dates. Step to $250 after +$750 banked. Never above $300 during the eval.
- Funded: the same nine rules; sizing per the funded plan in the method doc. The M2 trail is what earns the right tail — do not cap it with a fixed target.
- Discipline: −2R realized on the day means done — a seatbelt that has never triggered in the book.
- Referee: p1_master_method.pine is the only signal source on TradingView; its defaults are the live settings.