trading / confluences / c6_room

c6 — room to a 2R target LIVE

Live gate · In the live P1 Master gate stack today.

BURNED DATA — 2019–2026 was selected on before this lab existedNOT TV-VERIFIEDSCREENING ≠ CERTIFICATIONOPTIMISTIC FILL MODEL — touch fills, zero slippageMES ONLY · P1 M2 managementSOLO LEDGER IS NOT A BOOK — never summed

What it asks

Is there room to run? c6 is 1 when the nearest opposing obstacle sits at least 2× the stop distance away from entry.

Exact definition · as the engine implements it

Live confluence c6_room, read from the engine-stamped `conf_bits`.

Engine meaning: `helpers.htf_and_room` calls `defs.room_to_target(entry, sl_dist, ..., mult=2.0)` — nearest opposing obstacle >= 2 × stop distance. Note this is ALREADY stop-relative, which is what killed the b_roomstop candidate as a duplicate.

Commissioning stats — exp-0001, 2026-08-05

Gate 2 of 7, EXPLORATORY. Conditional association stratified on the count of the other five live bits, against this bit's own prevalence-matched null. This report supersedes its own first version, which used a single pooled placebo p95 and published a false headline; the superseded line is left on the ledger unedited (PROTOCOL gate 7).

Prevalence
9.61%
of 2,289 filled rows
Δ mean solo R
+0.0373
stratified on other 5 bits
Matched-null p
0.6940
30.60th pctile of own null
BH q (6-bit family)
0.6940
exploratory sort key
Bootstrap 95% CI
[-0.1513, +0.2333]
week-block · p=0.7090
Commissioning verdict
INDISTINGUISHABLE
2026-08-05 · exp-0001

Family verdict (verbatim, 2026-08-05): EXPLORATORY, NO PROMOTION. Under a correct prevalence-matched null, 1 of the six live confluences clears its own noise floor: c4_sweep +0.1312 R, matched p=0.043 (95.7th percentile of its own null). Over the 6-bit family that is BH q=0.26, its 95% CI touches zero, and all seven years are selection-burned — so it earns a pre-registration (gates 3-4), not a promotion. The other five do not clear their matched nulls. The previous headline on this id ('no real bit clears the placebo p95', 'ALL SIX indistinguishable') was FALSE: it applied one mixed-cloud p95 to every bit, distorting percentiles by up to 22 points in both directions.

Composition findings

Config-grid involvement — 2026-08-07

Paired replay on the certified conflab-livegate-v1 stream, $250-nominal basis (~2.6% high versus engine dollars), 31 cells examined with ZERO multiplicity correction and no p-values. Every cell below is post-hoc on data the bits were screened on.

CellNetΔ netTradesWRexpRmax EOD DDΔ pre-2025Δ 2025+
BASE — live A/B take rule (count >= 4)$10,39952654.0%+0.0791$10,826
swap_b_actfloor__c6_room$15,129+$4,7301,17853.4%+0.0514$8,643+$3,408+$1,321
CONFIG_6S_k4$11,254+$85559753.8%+0.0754$7,923−$538+$1,393
swap_b_onbreak__c6_room$11,254+$85559753.8%+0.0754$7,923−$538+$1,393
swap_b_gapadr__c6_room$7,296−$3,1041,07852.7%+0.0271$13,967−$3,787+$683
CONFIG_6S_k5$3,483−$6,91712154.5%+0.1151$2,917+$633−$7,550
CONFIG_6S_k6 n<100−$420−$10,819837.5%-0.2100$797−$1,179−$9,640
CONFIG_6S_k3−$7,780−$18,1791,50551.2%-0.0207$18,479−$13,791−$4,388

Ruling on these cells

The grid attacked this slot two ways and the tribunal defended it both times. Replacing c6 with b_actfloor posted the grid's biggest headline (+$4,730) — and is a gate LOOSENING, not an edge: c6's 0.092 prevalence swapped for a 0.785 bit raises the mean confluence count by +0.688, so the take rule silently drops from >= 4 to an effective >= 3.31 and the book fills with grade-C rows this same study measures as negative everywhere. Replacing it with b_onbreak (CONFIG_6S_k4) adds only +$855. Standing order: do not touch c6. It is the rarest and therefore most selective live gate, and the 2026-07-21 deep-dive's c4+c6 interaction finding predicts exactly the damage observed when it is removed. A drop-c6 ablation is required before any actfloor-in-c6 claim is ever entertained again — as cell #1 of a NEW grid, never added to this one.

Status — LIVE

INDISTINGUISHABLE on its own numbers (+0.037 R, matched p=0.694, 30.6th percentile, q=0.694) — and yet it is the gate the 2026-08-08 tribunal ordered left alone. Two reasons. It is by far the RAREST live gate (prevalence 0.096), so it is the most selective thing in the stack; and the 2026-07-21 deep-dive found c4+c6 the best pair. When the config grid replaced it with a 78%-prevalent bit, the resulting +$4,730 was mechanically explained as gate loosening, not edge.

Retest path

A drop-c6 ablation is a REQUIRED but STAGED experiment: it must be declared as cell #1 of a NEW pre-registered grid, never added to the burned one. If gate deletion alone reproduces ≈ +$4.7k, the real question becomes 'is c6 dead weight?' — a different study, argued against in advance by c4+c6.

Standing caveats

screen-2026-08-07stream conflab-pop-v1opportunity sha256 b62ca795de4a647b…harness ok · 0 real violations