trading / confluences / c5_htf
Live gate · In the live P1 Master gate stack today.
Is there a higher-timeframe fair-value gap or 30m/1H pattern backing the trade?
Live confluence c5_htf, read from the engine-stamped `conf_bits`. Engine meaning: HTF FVG or 30m/1H pattern support.
Gate 2 of 7, EXPLORATORY. Conditional association stratified on the count of the other five live bits, against this bit's own prevalence-matched null. This report supersedes its own first version, which used a single pooled placebo p95 and published a false headline; the superseded line is left on the ledger unedited (PROTOCOL gate 7).
Family verdict (verbatim, 2026-08-05): EXPLORATORY, NO PROMOTION. Under a correct prevalence-matched null, 1 of the six live confluences clears its own noise floor: c4_sweep +0.1312 R, matched p=0.043 (95.7th percentile of its own null). Over the 6-bit family that is BH q=0.26, its 95% CI touches zero, and all seven years are selection-burned — so it earns a pre-registration (gates 3-4), not a promotion. The other five do not clear their matched nulls. The previous headline on this id ('no real bit clears the placebo p95', 'ALL SIX indistinguishable') was FALSE: it applied one mixed-cloud p95 to every bit, distorting percentiles by up to 22 points in both directions.
Paired replay on the certified conflab-livegate-v1 stream, $250-nominal basis (~2.6% high versus engine dollars), 31 cells examined with ZERO multiplicity correction and no p-values. Every cell below is post-hoc on data the bits were screened on.
| Cell | Net | Δ net | Trades | WR | expR | max EOD DD | Δ pre-2025 | Δ 2025+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BASE — live A/B take rule (count >= 4) | $10,399 | — | 526 | 54.0% | +0.0791 | $10,826 | — | — |
| swap_b_actfloor__c5_htf | $11,669 | +$1,269 | 972 | 53.3% | +0.0480 | $10,159 | −$2 | +$1,272 |
| swap_b_gapadr__c5_htf | $6,482 | −$3,917 | 887 | 53.1% | +0.0292 | $13,094 | −$3,552 | −$365 |
| swap_b_onbreak__c5_htf | $5,803 | −$4,597 | 419 | 53.2% | +0.0554 | $7,054 | +$580 | −$5,177 |
The second PRE-REGISTERED replacement slot, and the same story. b_actfloor +$1,269 (entirely 2025+; pre-2025 is −$2 flat) — under the $1,500/12m promotion bar by an order of magnitude once annualised over 7.16 years. b_onbreak −$4,597, b_gapadr −$3,917. No registration earned.
WEAK. +0.089 mean solo R, matched p=0.153 (84.75th percentile), q=0.348 — below its own noise floor. Named with c1 as the second weak slot by the 2026-07-21 deep-dive. Commissioning also killed a folk belief here: c5 and c6 are NOT entangled (phi −0.027) despite sharing HTF machinery.
c5 was the second PRE-REGISTERED replacement slot of the 2026-08-07 screen. All three A/B challengers lost or were rejected (b_actfloor +$1,269 on burned data — under the $1,500/12m bar by an order of magnitude; b_onbreak −$4,597; b_gapadr −$3,917). New attempt = new grid, unburned data, full gauntlet.