trading / confluences / c1_trend
Live gate · In the live P1 Master gate stack today.
Is the hourly chart already leaning the way the trade wants to go? c1 is 1 when the 1-hour EMA20/EMA50 stack agrees with the signal direction.
Live confluence c1_trend, read from the engine-stamped `conf_bits` on the opportunity ledger. The lab deliberately does NOT reimplement it: a second definition could silently drift from the one the engine trades. Engine meaning: 1H EMA20/50 bias aligned with the trade direction.
Gate 2 of 7, EXPLORATORY. Conditional association stratified on the count of the other five live bits, against this bit's own prevalence-matched null. This report supersedes its own first version, which used a single pooled placebo p95 and published a false headline; the superseded line is left on the ledger unedited (PROTOCOL gate 7).
Family verdict (verbatim, 2026-08-05): EXPLORATORY, NO PROMOTION. Under a correct prevalence-matched null, 1 of the six live confluences clears its own noise floor: c4_sweep +0.1312 R, matched p=0.043 (95.7th percentile of its own null). Over the 6-bit family that is BH q=0.26, its 95% CI touches zero, and all seven years are selection-burned — so it earns a pre-registration (gates 3-4), not a promotion. The other five do not clear their matched nulls. The previous headline on this id ('no real bit clears the placebo p95', 'ALL SIX indistinguishable') was FALSE: it applied one mixed-cloud p95 to every bit, distorting percentiles by up to 22 points in both directions.
Paired replay on the certified conflab-livegate-v1 stream, $250-nominal basis (~2.6% high versus engine dollars), 31 cells examined with ZERO multiplicity correction and no p-values. Every cell below is post-hoc on data the bits were screened on.
| Cell | Net | Δ net | Trades | WR | expR | max EOD DD | Δ pre-2025 | Δ 2025+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BASE — live A/B take rule (count >= 4) | $10,399 | — | 526 | 54.0% | +0.0791 | $10,826 | — | — |
| swap_b_onbreak__c1_trend | $11,236 | +$837 | 402 | 55.7% | +0.1118 | $7,800 | +$1,237 | −$400 |
| swap_b_actfloor__c1_trend | $3,756 | −$6,643 | 958 | 53.0% | +0.0157 | $14,738 | −$5,282 | −$1,361 |
| swap_b_gapadr__c1_trend | $2,399 | −$8,000 | 864 | 53.2% | +0.0111 | $13,695 | −$3,626 | −$4,374 |
One of the two PRE-REGISTERED replacement slots. All three screened candidates were A/B'd into it on burned data and none earned a registration: b_onbreak +$837 (and −$400 in the 2025+ era), b_actfloor −$6,643, b_gapadr −$8,000. Note the pattern the tribunal ordered recorded: the pre-registered slots produced ZERO winners while only the post-hoc extensions 'won', which is the fingerprint of selection.
WEAK. Commissioning (2026-08-05, prevalence-matched null) puts it at +0.081 mean solo R, matched p=0.174, 82.6th percentile of its own null, BH q=0.348 over the six-bit family — it does not clear its own noise floor. The 2026-07-21 deep-dive reached the same place independently and named c1 one of the two weak slots. It stays live because nothing has beaten it under the promotion law, not because it has been shown to work.
c1 is one of the two PRE-REGISTERED replacement slots of the 2026-08-07 screen. Three candidates were A/B'd into it (b_onbreak +$837, b_actfloor −$6,643, b_gapadr −$8,000 on burned data) and none earned a challenger registration. Any future attempt on this slot needs a fresh pre-registered grid on post-2026-07-31 data plus the full Courtroom gauntlet.