trading / confluences / b_blackout

b_blackout — clock blackout windows DEAD

Corpus lane — SW-08 · Scored and did not clear its own noise floor.

What it asks

Don't trade in three named minute-windows (09:39–09:50, 09:58–10:05, 13:55–14:35 ET). The bit is 1 when the decision falls OUTSIDE all of them.

Exact definition · verbatim docstring from backtests/conf_lab/bits.py (sha1 5473adbbf694)

SW-08 clock blackout. 1 iff the DECISION time is OUTSIDE every blackout
window (so 1 = tradeable, matching the other bits' polarity).

Windows (ET, inclusive both ends): 09:39-09:50, 09:58-10:05, 13:55-14:35.
Fixed a priori; no window was swept, added or moved. Pure clock predicate —
it reads no market data at all, which is why it cannot leak.

Fixed parameters & provenance

Every parameter below was fixed in the design document before any candidate value was computed. No sweep, no tuning: a bit that needs tuning to pass has failed.

Screen analytics — screen-2026-08-07

Conditional association on mean solo R, stratified on the count of the OTHER live bits, against a per-bit prevalence-matched null (50,000 i.i.d. Bernoulli draws at this bit's own prevalence, scored on its own strata). Population: 2,882 candidates, 2,289 filled, MES, 2019-06-04 → 2026-07-31.

Per era · reported separately, never pooled into a verdict — each cell is a smaller sample than the headline

Funnel & fill conditioning · a bit that mostly predicts whether a limit FILLS is not the same discovery as a bit that predicts whether a trade WINS

Novelty vs the six live bits · high agreement means the bit is mostly restating a gate that is already in the stack

By stratum — does it work where the method actually trades? · the live A/B take rule is count >= 4, so the count>=4 rows are the only ones that could change a live trade

Status — DEAD

NULL: pooled +0.017 R, matched p=0.758 (24.2nd percentile of its own null), q=0.952. This is the cleanest bit in the slate to trust as a null, because it reads no market data at all — a pure clock predicate, structurally incapable of leaking. The windows were taken from the source card verbatim and never moved; the card's 08:20 and 15:49 windows were dropped because they lie outside P1's signal hours, which is a scope decision, not a tuning one.

Retest path

Do not move the windows. Re-cutting time-of-day boundaries until one pays is the purest form of the multiplicity this programme is built to refuse.

Standing caveats

• Fill model optimistic: touch fills, zero net slippage, entry-bar SL/TP not checked inside the fill minute.
• Not a holdout — 2019-2026 was selected on, tuned on and reported on before this lab existed. A good number here means 'worth pre-registering', nothing more.
• MES only; the P1 edge is MES-centric and recent-regime.
• Masters miss four Sunday-evening blocks (May-Jun 2026); data ends 2026-07-31.
• Mean solo R is an average per candidate. The solo ledger is not a book and is never summed (PROTOCOL.md §0).
• Per-era cells are reported separately and are NOT pooled into a verdict; each is a smaller sample than the headline.
• Nothing on this page is TV-verified. A backtest number becomes actionable only after an independent TradingView Pine port reproduces entries AND per-trade PnL on a Deep Backtest export.
• Screening is not certification. Promotion requires all seven PROTOCOL gates, ending in a forward paired evaluation and a Pine referee.

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